Polymarket Quant Terminal for Prediction Market Traders
The most reliable way to research & trade prediction markets
Browse and search all Polymarket markets
Execute trades with full order management
Track positions and P&L
Twitter analytics for Elon markets
Market discovery and analysis
Quantitative market analysis
AI-powered edge detection
Automated spike detection and trading
Deep Dive
Pre-computed analytics from 31 days of Elon Musk's Twitter activity. No API calls needed.
Elon Musk's tweeting patterns correlate with Polymarket activity on related markets. High tweet volume often precedes market movements. Track patterns to find edges.
December 19, 2024 - January 18, 2025 (31 days)
Green = Peak | Darker = More Activity
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| YES/NO.EVENTS |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| app.py (TUI) | dashboard4all.py (Web) | trading.py (API) |
| ~6,200 lines | ~8,500 lines | ~3,700 lines |
| 17 Screens | Single-file server | 100+ Functions |
| Textual framework | HTTP + HTML/CSS/JS | 6 API integrations|
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|
+----------------------------+----------------------------+
| | |
v v v
+--------------+ +--------------+ +--------------+
| Polymarket | | Ollama | | Local |
| APIs | | (llama3.2) | | Cache |
| | | | | |
| - CLOB | | - Edge AI | | - Markets |
| - Gamma | | - Analysis | | - Prices |
| - Data | | - Signals | | - History |
| - Polyrouter | | | | |
+--------------+ +--------------+ +--------------+
Transparency
All algorithms, calculations, and data sources are fully documented. No black boxes.
YES/NO prices are complementary values between 0.00 and 1.00. Spread is ask minus bid.
YES_PRICE = value (0.00 - 1.00)
NO_PRICE = 1.00 - YES_PRICE
SPREAD = ASK - BID
Edge is the difference between your estimated probability and market probability.
Edge = Your_Prob - Market_Prob
>5% edge = High confidence
3-5% edge = Medium confidence
<3% edge = Low / noise
Optimal bet sizing based on your edge and the odds. Use fractional Kelly (25%) for safety.
f* = (bp - q) / b
b = odds - 1
p = your probability
q = 1 - p
Pearson correlation (r) measures relationship between two market price movements.
r = SUM((x-x')(y-y')) /
SQRT(SUM(x-x')^2 * SUM(y-y')^2)
0.7-1.0 = Strong positive
-0.3-0.3 = Weak/None
Detects overbought/oversold conditions by comparing price to neighbors and volume.
Momentum = (Price - Expected)*100
+ (Vol_Ratio - 1)*5
Expected = (Prev + Next) / 2
Vol_Ratio = Vol / Avg_Vol
Monte Carlo simulation projects tweet counts using random walk with mean reversion.
Parameters:
volatility: 0.15
mean_reversion: 0.05
simulations: 10,000
This software is for educational and research purposes only. It is NOT investment advice, trading signals, or professional trading software. Trade at your own risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Integration
Comprehensive access to all Polymarket data sources. Fully documented with examples.
| API | Endpoint | Functions | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLOB | clob.polymarket.com |
15 | Trading, orderbook, prices, orders |
| Gamma | gamma-api.polymarket.com |
12 | Markets, events, profiles, comments |
| Data | data-api.polymarket.com |
10 | Positions, leaderboard, holders |
| Polyrouter | api-v2.polyrouter.io |
2 | Fast search, trending markets |
| Ollama | localhost:11434 |
4 | Local AI edge detection (llama3.2) |
| Quant | Local | 12 | Models, backtesting, forecasting |
Classic terminal interface with vim-like navigation. Perfect for power users and SSH sessions.
./yesno.sh
Browser-based interface with charts. Access from any device on your network.
./run.sh # localhost:8888
Usage
Power user commands for market scanning, quant analysis, and tweet tracking
Edge detection powered by local LLM - no API costs, full privacy.
# Install Ollama
brew install ollama
# Start server
ollama serve
# Pull model
ollama pull llama3.2
# API endpoint
http://localhost:11434
Future
What's live, what's coming soon, and what's planned
Full terminal with Markets, Trading, Portfolio, Elon Lab, Research, Analytics, API Explorer, Settings, Edge Scanner, Automation
31 days of tweet data with heatmaps, patterns, and daily charts. Instant loading, no API calls.
Ollama + llama3.2 integration for AI-powered analysis without API costs
Live price updates, trade feed, and orderbook via rtds_client.py
Define entry/exit rules, auto-execute trades based on signals
Complete price history for all markets. Test strategies on historical data.
| File | Lines | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| app.py | ~6,200 | TUI application (Textual framework) |
| trading.py | ~3,700 | API layer (100+ functions) |
| dashboard4all.py | ~8,500 | Web dashboard (single-file server) |
| quant.py | ~800 | Quantitative models |
| search.py | ~400 | TF-IDF vector search |
| rtds_client.py | ~600 | WebSocket real-time streaming |