🎯 About Mention Markets

Predict the news before it breaks. Mention Markets is a skill-based prediction game where you bet on which keywords will appear in real-time news feeds.

Unlike traditional prediction markets, we don't ask you to predict outcomes (who wins, what happens) — we ask you to predict attention: what topics the media will focus on in the next few minutes.

Why it matters: In an attention economy, what gets mentioned is often more important than what actually happens. News cycles drive markets, policy, and public opinion. By predicting mentions, you're predicting the flow of information itself.

Skill-based: If you know there's an OpenAI conference today, you bet YES on "GPT" or "AI". If you see breaking news about a region, you position accordingly. Knowledge pays off.

Contrarian rewards: Pool-based odds mean going against the crowd can yield massive returns. If everyone bets YES and you correctly bet NO, you win big.

📋 How to Play

Game Cycle (50 seconds total):

• 30 seconds — Voting phase: 3 random keywords appear. Bet 100 points on YES (will appear) or NO (won't appear) for each.
• 10 seconds — Waiting phase: Betting closes. Next round prepares.
• 10 seconds — Resolution: We check the latest RSS article. Keywords mentioned = YES, not mentioned = NO.

Betting:

• Each bet costs 100 points
• You can bet on all 3 markets or skip any
• Once you bet, you're locked in

Payouts (Pool-Based Odds):

• Your payout = (Total Pool / Winning Side Pool) × 100
• Example: If 300 points bet YES and 100 bet NO, and NO wins → NO bettors get 400 points each (4x return)
• Contrarian plays = higher rewards

Resolution Source:

• We fetch real RSS feeds (BBC News, Reuters, etc.)
• The newest unused article is checked for exact keyword matches
• Article title + description are searched (case-insensitive)
• You can see which article was used in your bet history

Strategy Tips:

• Follow breaking news: Major events drive mentions
• Know the news cycle: Some keywords spike at certain times
• Contrarian edge: If odds are lopsided, the unpopular side often has value
• Track patterns: Some words appear more frequently in feeds

Provably Fair:

• All resolutions are based on public RSS feeds
• Article source and timestamp shown for every resolution
• No manipulation possible — news is news